New signal with a buy and trade open 12/01/2011.  Yes after a big run up it is a buy.  Markets continue it's volatility.  A good way to handle volatility is with a stop to capture 50% of the gain.  Adjust as price hits new intraday highs setting limit stop to half way between purchase price and the highest intraday high.  I find this keeps a gain from turning into a loss. 

The Trend Advantage.

New buy signal

Since my last post 9/14 we had a down signal 9/20 and then a up signal 10/6.  I am hoping this new signal 10/6 is the start of a new up trend that will last a while.  The market has been very choppy and this kind of system does not handle it well.

The last two signals have been good trades and maybe the choppiness will be less near term.

The last two trades have a gain of 2.74% and 6.71%.

Happy Trading

The Trend Advantage

The signal is BUY

We have a buy signal.  I say buy only if the markets are raising and then keep the positions small.

I like the QQQ because of it's strength.

Beware we are in a choppy market and this BUY signal may not last long.

The Trend Advantage.

The speed of the markets moves are continuing - step a side

Until the volatility drops and the market stops the big one day moves I am going to sit on the side lines.  The exception is to enter short term option trades.

The signal is now down and I am in $$CASH.

The Trend Advantage.

Markets opened lower so no follow through

With out an open higher and markets moving up the buy signal is on hold. Don't buy unless the markets are moving in the direction of signal.

SPX rallys to 1200 and triggers a buy signal

For now The Trend Advantage is on a buy signal.  After last week my confidence level is low and there for I expect more down side.  Let's see what the mechanical trading systems says in the coming days.  I am long SSO.

Example on how to use the trend is at end of day 7/27 we had a sell signal.  Just before the close you could have bought 100 shares of BGZ at 35.36.  With a buy signal today at just before the close you would have sold BGZ at 41.45 for a +17% gain.  Very Nice !  Also you could have bought 100 shares of BGU today at 58.75.  Lets see how this one works out too.

The Trend Advantage

SPX 1168 held. Is it the bottom?

To soon to tell if 1168 was the bottom.  We are no were near a bottom of vicious politics.  This article rips the politicians.

http://www.economist.com/node/21525405

The Trend Advantage

Sell signal 7/27

Time to go short.
Maybe it is time for cash with the chaos going on in Washington D.C.

The Trend Advantage

New signal is BUY

The Trend Advantage is now a BUY signal.

The Debit ceiling looks like it will get raised to avoid default.

Eranings in tech have been good.

I am going to do some buying Wednesday.

Happy Trading
The Trend Advantage.

Back to writing the blog

I have been taking time off from writing and will contiue with the blog now.

The Trendadvantage is now on a sell signal as of 7/11/2011.  Will give updates as they happen.  Back testing shows the last two signal calls as profitable.  I would wait for a fresh signal to trade again.

Thanks
The Trend Advantage.

Tuseday opened with a gap up and what to do

At 10:15am the market had open higher and moved down.  It was still positive on the day but was not moving up.  The rule on buying in the morning is wait until 10:00 to 10:15am to determine what the price action is.  It was looking like a down day.  A bit later the market leveled out and began to go up.  I got in about 2 pm when it looked like the market was in deed moving up.

Happy Trading

The Trend Advantage

We have a buy signal as of 5/27/2011

The Trend Advantage is now on a buy. Trade Tuesday morning if the markets continue to go up.

Happy trading

Not much has changed even with all the hype in the news

An other up and down week with Little change.  US markets held up better and the defensive sectors did well.  Silver and gold may have settled down and may present a buying opportunity soon.

Let's review:
The Trend Advantage system gave a sell signal 5/3 and then a buy for the open 5/11.  If you had blindly bought on the open you would have been sorry for the markets had a big down day.  If you had waiting until 10:15 am you would have seen 5/11 was not a day to buy long and the buy signal was canceled.  The ETF QID purchased 5/4 has to gain at the close of Friday but not much as this has been a choppy market.

I found a website that listed all the newly created ETFs on the market since the first of the year.  I enjoyed exploring them and found some interesting.  In the end I came back to my system with trading the highest volume index ETFs because the back testing shows you make money with these boring index ETF.  With a new ETF you can not back test 3 or 5 years back.  Stick with what works as in QLD/QID, SSO/SDS, UWM/TWM and other high volume major index ETFs.

Happy Trading
The Trend Advantage.

Whipped shawed again and now a sell 5/11

The buy signal did not hold up because the next day the markets opened down and continued down.  So the correct action would have been, go to cash or short at about 10:00am 5/11/2011.

There have been twice as many signals so far this year then normal and a trending system does not perform as well in this environment.  The markets will stop being choppy and the profits will start coming back to The Trend Advantage.  Staying with a system while it is not performing is tough but in 2010 there were 12 signals and all were profitable.  Also 2010 was The Trend Advantages best year.

This a long term game of making money.

The Trend Advantage

The Trend Advantage is now on a buy signal

At 10:15am today the system changed to buy. Get in before market closes today or next morning. I chose SSO & UWM this time.

Happy trading
The Trend Advantage

Friday 5/6 - how real are the jobs report if the good feel does not last even half a day?

Status is current signal is Down:

Near the end of the day and we had a day were the SPX pushed up to 1354 the 61.8 retracement from the most recent low and moved down again.  That would have been a great place to buy inverse ETFs or a PUT.

My inverse ETFs lost a bit today but still have gains.

Enjoy the weekend
The Trend Advantage.

5/4 "Sell in May and go away"

Feels like this is what is going on today.

This morning was a transition day with sell longs (some at a loss) and buying inverse ETFs.  Let's hope Steve Grasso on CNBC is correct with the low on this move at 1257 SPX.  This would give enough of a move to collect a gain on the inverse ETFs.  So many times the inverse ETFs do make a gain during a bull market.

I started out the day with RWM which is non levered Russell 2000 index.  When we get a rebound will add more inverse positions.

Looking back should have traded at EOD Tuesday.  I was busy with the day job and maybe there is a way to put in auto trades. 

Happy Trading
The Trend Advantage

Tuesday 5/3 update - Signal is SELL

A strong down day and the Trend Advantage System signal is now a SELL.

The rules for the morning are to sell your longs and by inverse ETFs if he market continues down by 10:15am.  You have the chance that the markets bounces back up and give it a bit of time to determine but use your judgement as to the timing if you don't want the poor pricing at the open that often happens.

Did you remember to capture at lest half of your gains with automatic stops.  Does your online account have that?  It should and take advantage of that.  Example if the high for an ETF is plus $3.00 then set the stop at cost price plus $1.50.  Simple but you must check every day to see if the most recent high has been set higher.  The high to use the highest intraday high since position taken.

Like most people I work a full time job and had no time to check the market today.  If I had I would have sold my longs by 3:50pm and purchased inverse ETFs. 

TWM, PSQ, SH

Happy Trading

The Trend Advantage

Friday status 4/29

Here we are at the end of an other week and William and Kate are now married.  What a small little kiss that was come on man !!!!
Sorry I do have a life.

Since the up signal 4/20 the status
CZM is +2.5%
EDC is +10%
BGU is +12%
TNA is +16%

These were placed at EOD 4/19 to be exact.

Oh how fun trend trading can be with your own system.  How is your trading system (plan) coming along?

Happy Trading
Ben

Don't put all your money in one index

I have back tested using just one ETF to trade as in QLD.  What works better is trade at lest three ETFs at a time and the equity curve will be smoother with three to five diverse indexes.  My favorites are BGU, TNA, EDC.  Russell 1000, Russell 2000, Emerging markets.  These cover basically the whole US market and much of the rest of the world.  Yes using levered ETFs cause more volatility and larger drawn downs.  Over years it pays off nicely.

The Timingcube.com site which I subscribe to has some compelling gains over ten years time frames.  It shows results using QQQ, IWM and SPY.  Using BGU, TNA, EDC with the 3x leverage the gains are well WOW.

So if you don't have a trading system and don't want to create one, Timingcube is a choice.  I chose to develop my own and it gives better results than Timingcube and it feels good to have my own winning system.  Just like Timingcube I too will not give out exactly how my system works, no way.....

I will after the fact let you know my signals. I encourage you to put in the time and effort to create your system for I am very glade I did.

Remember the trend is your advantage.  Identify it and follow it.
Good luck with your creativity

Ben

Trend is up 4/20

The system gave an up signal 4/20. On 4/19 I could see near end of day it was almost an up signal and got in. Turned out to be a good Idea for there was a gap up in the morning. I will be checking at end of day for a new signal and trade near the close of the day.

As of 4/26 my trades are looking good. EDC, CZM.

So many forecasters, which one is correct?

Maybe none of them are correct. 

"Successful men never wait for others to show them what to do or how to do it."
-- Napoleon Hill

Successful traders don't wait for a forecaster to tell them what and when to trade.
-- Ben Cass

Trade your system, decide for your self, determine your risk and set goals and trading stops...

Ben

EOD 4/11 Sell signal

My system has posted a sell signal.  On the open next day look to sell longs and buy shorts.  If that is the markets continue dropping by 10am or so.

Good luck and set your stops.

Firday 4/8/2011 - Markets are trading side ways (boring)

I have my stops tight and ready for a dip and a sell signal on my system.  UYM has been strong and did get into a position back on 3/21.  I keep looking for the US dollar to bounce and it keeps drifting lower.  Stay with that trend and have commodity exposure like DBC, JJG, SLV while US dollar trend is down.

Stay with the trends and this one has run out of steam.  Keep your eye on the trend and follow it.

Have a good day.

My system is still a buy as of 3/21

That means buy open 3/22.  So far the gain is 6.81% and not bad.  Remember to place a stop at half of your gain or the next sell signal.  The energy and materials sectors and ETFs have done very well.  I have noticed that Asia ETFs are strong except for Japan of course.  I herd on TV some one pushing Japan as a long term buy.  Not even close yet should you buy Japan and maybe never.

In fact today on Fast Money a show on CNBC after a guest talked about how bad the FED is doing and how bad the housing market is and how printing money how bad it is going to get, he said to buy things like silver and gold.  Hmm I think he already owns the silver and gold and wants the viewers to buy more.  What the F*** is going on.  Be a ware of this kind of reporting in the media.

Have a plan and follow it as if your life depended on it because it does......

Happy trading !!!

The system works:

Buy signal on 3/21 and up over 4% in QLD so far. 

I am reading the book in Kindle, The new sell and sell short: How to take profits cuts losses, and benefit from price declines by Alexander Elder.  I recommend it as a reading and read it fast and get the idea of what a traders mind is like.  Is it you?  Well what I was surprised about was my trend trading is stressful he says.   He thinks short day trades are less stressful.  I am going to keep with my trend trading just so you know.  I will how ever add more short term trading in between my trend trades.

What the recent events have shown is what ever the markets were doing before hand it will get back to.  So in this case buy the big dip !!!!!

I am going in add to my trading plan exit rules.

1. If my gain is > 5%, set stop at 50% of greatest gain.  An other words be sure to keep 50% of you gain.
2. Put in an initial stop of 2% from buy point.  This is a normal rule all traders should have.

Still an uptrend and Material and Energy sectors leading

Today was a third day up on the timing system.  QLD is .8% positive, no much of a gain.  I would not be surprised to see more down side. Remember to use stops 2% from buy point, after 5% gain take half of max gain and pocket.

I have been looking at day trading or being able to buy and sell the same ETF the same day.  This will allow me to get out of a trade that goes wrong and trade in the correct direction.  Need over $25,000 in account to do this.  I am not there yet.  With the day trade ability I could set the entry and stop loss plus a profit limit all at once.

Happy trading
Ben

Things are better and so is the markets

I attended a day trading free half day and saw how they were going to take $5,000 from me for a week were all the profits go to them too.  No thanks.

My system is now on a buy and going to entry long in the morning if it is an up day.  Put a stop 2% below the cost price as a stop loss.  After the gain is greater than 5% then calculate 50% from the high profit and set an exit there.

Happy trading.

Were is the warkets going?

To forecast the next move some days is obvious and some days
is hard to know. Today is one of those. I am long one position and yesterday Timingcube turbo system changed to sell. I see SPX support all the way down at 1230. I would be a buyer there.

Today I think is an up day and may sell my long and wait for more clear direction which could be down.

Ben

Japan and timing the market

Who thought of making a trade from the disaster in Japan.  Well I bought EWV on Friday and this morning it was up big.  I could hold on for a few days and see what happens but I sold and took the profit, 12%.

If you have long term position and don't want to sell them here is an idea.  Watch SDS ETF like you would an other stock or ETF for an entry point.  You could use the EMA(40) as a buy and sell point.  I used my timing system the morning of Friday and ended up with a loss at end of day.  Today it is in the green so it did work out.  That is the way of a timing system, it may not be profitable at first.

Intraday today Vector vest has a new C/DN signal.  Well I am already on a sell signal.  Maybe I should sell advertising of Vector Vest on this blog.

Looking at possible level were the $SPX will find support, I see 1270 - 1280.

Ben

New signals 3/10

My system gave a sell signal at the close of Thursday 3/10.  Also Vector Vest DEW timer gave a sell.  Of course the markets rebound this morning.  I did sell my longs and have inverse ETF's now.  I followed my system and it does not feel good so far today because I have losses.  Maybe I should only look at  my accounts end of day to avoid having my feeling go up and down with the equity curve.

I used a retirement calculator and ....

I used a retirement calculator putting in income, savings, investments, etc.  In the end I ran out of money between age 74 and 81.  I added saving more per month and it did not help much.

I fell into a bad mood.  Using Excel I determined I need a 40% return on average for the next ten years in order to stop working the corporate world.  How do I do that.

My system has shown since July 2006 it could obtain that.  I have it back tested to then.  Timingcube . com has a new Turbo system back tested to 2000.  With this I could achieve over ten years my goal.  The catch is I would not commit all my money to this one system.

My action is to focus on growing my retirement money so I don't end up working at age 70.  I want to be enjoying life, travel, have beauty in my life the kind of things money can by.

Since 1/2/2009 Turbo long&short returns:
TYH/TYP   - 165%
TNA/TZA   - 344%
BGU/BGZ  - 248%


Turbo timing system here I come.

Waste no time...

Ben

Side ways shuffle

One day down signal, four days later up, then two days down, one day up.  The first time this has happened and I hope the last.  Best thing to do is stand back and see that $SPX is above the EMA(44) so just stay long.  With all the bouncing around it never dropped below the EMA(44) on the close a good sign. 

The news has been bad news and then good news.  Stick with your plan and in this case use a moving average to determine the market direction.  I say use EMA(44) and until it drops below that stay long.

Trading is a very hard thing to do so always have good money management plan.  Never lose more than you are willing to lose.  Plan in small losses and bigger profits.

Careful trading
Ben

Turbulent times are here again

My system has given three quick signal that lost a total of 8%.  That means an 8% draw down from the current peak.  That is not bad comparing it with the paid service Timingcube.  This service also came out with a new timing model called Turbo.  I have reviewed it and it trades much more than my system.  It's gains are comparable to my system.  I am a paying subscriber and will use it for one of my accounts and will let you know how it works out.

I have sold my commodity trades in RJA and SLV.  Currently have QLD at a small loss.

The past two weeks reminds me how the media can influence me in a negative way and it is easy to not follow the system.  So what I have decided is to use three systems for 2011.

1) My A-system
2) Timincube Turbo system
3) My modified Turtle trading system.

My goals for 2011 is a combined total gain of $30,000 from all sources.

I will lay out the progress as we go.

"follow your system with discipline"
Me

Emerging markets have been showing weakness

I sold three of my non-US ETFs.  Does the US follow?  I don't know but the chart actions told me to sell and take profits and keep the loses small.

Silver has had interesting news over the last two months.  The large short positions and the law suites against the large banks that supposedly have them.  If they have to buy to get out of there positions then SLV ETF will raise.  Also the ratio of price compared to gold shows that silver has not been keeping up with gold's raise.  An other reason silver could go up.

I am not investing in silver, I am taking a bet that in the next two months silver will pop up.  The bet I took is two option contacts on SLV April 34 calls.  Will need SLV to go above $35 to profit.  The bet only cost me $93.

System-A is still on a buy signal.

Happy trading/investing
Ben

Good thing the buy rule #1 kept us in QLD.

Strong day and QLD bounced back almost to the buy from 1/26.  I would call this a follow through day.  Up close to 2% with higher volume.  Check at 10:15 to see if the markets are up and put more cash to work.

Buying rule #1, wait until 10:15am

1/28 was a sell signal.  Next trading day 1/31 the futures were up and the market was up by 10:15am.  This means the sell signal was canceled and hold the long position.  Always wait until 10:15am to see were the markets is going so that you do not blindly trade at the open.  This rule is to avoid being whipped....

World events can change the trend

So the Egyptian protests have hit the markets and we had a hard down day the day after a new up signal.  The signal is now sell.  I expect more weakness in the markets.  Sell the QLD and Buy QID.

From the Guild Investment :

Russia Watch: Sitting (Literally) on a Huge Repository of Raw Materials

 

An analysis of the Russian raw material scene indicates production lagging behind expectations and an effort underway to change the situation. Russia is among the world’s three largest reserve holders in iron ore, coal, platinum group metals, potash, magnesium, titanium, tungsten, gold, silver, sulfur, tin, and the rare earth elements germanium and vanadium.  The country also has huge supplies of oil, salt, nickel, iodine, molybdenum, cobalt, and cadmium.  That’s a huge amount of potential wealth awaiting efficient exploitation.

 

The Russian government plans to ramp up production of these resources and increase its wealth. It’s worth noting that much of that wealth is controlled by a few politically-connected oligarchs and government officials. 

 

I only now of ETF RSX for investing in Russia.  Need to research this.

 

 

 

Market resumes uptrend (1/26/2011)

We are back to the buy signal and sell QID and buy QLD at the open.  My aggressive system does get whipped around at times.  I would be all in at this point because the theme right now is QEII and Fed want investors to sell bonds and buy stocks, American stocks.  Go with the plan until it changes.

Ben

Mid day 1/26/2011

If the markets closes at these levels we will have a new buy signal.  This market is tough because of the shallow corrects.  This makes it hard to get in but this time we are on a sell signal so we next get a buying opportunity.  Follow the system....

Follow the system 1/21/2011 - Friday

At the start of trading you should have sold QLD and bought QID, between 10:00 and 10:15. 
QLD I had a gain of 11% when closed out. QID at this time is a small loss because of a strong day Monday.  If  the market continues up a new buy signal will get us back to long.  Let's wait and see.

WHY THE MARKET IS WRONG by Carl Swelin

In my business I am exposed to the writings of a lot of really smart people, and it is never hard to find a few who are trying to explain to us why the market is wrong. The market is wrong, of course, because it has blithely gone its merry way without any regard for the brilliant analysis, presented by the writers -- analysis that explains with exquisite detail and flawless logic why the market should be doing the exact opposite of what it is doing.

Fundamental analysts are most prone to this kind of error -- writing reams of research, and then, by god, sticking to their guns as the market in turn puts them and their investors through a meat grinder. Most are trapped in a system where they are required to justify their actions with a good fundamental story, which is why, for example, Calpers (the State of California retirement system) was down 25% in 2009.
However, there are plenty of technicians who fall into the same trap when they start using indicators and oscillators as a crystal ball. This approach usually doesn't work any better than the fundamental crystal ball. You are basically left with a bunch of ambiguous technicals as a basis for making your next "call."
Rather than explaining why the market is wrong, we should be asking, "What is the market doing?", and acting appropriately. I am, of course, talking about a trend-following discipline. This approach is never perfect, but it is always rational because we respond to what prices are actually doing, not what we think they ought to be doing.

1/20/2011 - End Of Day is a new signal and it is Sell

My system has given a sell signal.  The action now is to sell your ETF's as in QLD at market open.  If the futures point to a higher open wait until 10:00 - 10:30 am to see what direction the market is moving.  If it moves up see if we have a resume of the uptrend and hold on to your QLD.  If the market is still weak, sell your QLD.

Happy Trading.
Ben

Market in up trend

The markets keep raising at a slow pace.  My market internals are saying we are getting in the range where the market corrects.  How much I do not predict.  Will I go short when the next sell signal comes, Yes I will.  I follow my system.  I do this with a position of my account money and it is up to each investor as to how much to risk.  My system has what I call "go to cash" signal also and that is for the long term positions to be sold.  It is not an exciting system I have with all the waiting for days or weeks and some times months between trades.  Does it work?  Yes.  The next sell signal I will sell my long ETFs and buy QID.

Happy Waiting
Ben

A new year and let's get started with The Trend Advantage System

I have developed a system I would like to share with you.  It follows the stock market up and down trends and produces great returns in either direction.  This system is for the average person who works during the day.  It does require 5-10 minutes a day to see if it is time to make trades.  The system trades ETF's and uses long and inverse ETF's.  It is a mechanical system making it simple to use.  Where the system shines is it gets you in the rising markets early where the big gains happen.

I would like to hear from you about what it is that you want to know more about and if you have a similar system.