October first came and went with out a S&P500 MACD positive cross over.  I am still holding my bonds.  The trend turned down and may not get the signal to buy stocks even in November.  The markets are over sold but they could go lower.  Let's see if there is any good news out of Washington that will move the markets up.

Holding bond ETF's AGG & TLT have been profitable since 4/4/2012. So far playing the seasonal trade has worked. I will hold until 10/01 or if we get a rally going prior to that date will sell bonds and go long stocks. Picking a few small cap stocks that have strong earnings on the dips has been working too. I use a 10% trailing stop and some have sold but often with a profit. It has been an other fearful year with no end in sight. Be careful. Check out www.sumgrowth.com

I have been hearing about buying stocks October 1st and Selling April 30th.  I have done my own quick study of the seasonal trading and I find it worked in all but three trades.  With the use of the MACD for entry and exits improves the performance.  The surprise was after selling in April and buying bonds and holding until October, the gains over all improve nicely.  This is without the dividends factored in so the real performance should be better.  I believe I have found a system for that hard to trade 401K that will improve it's performance.  From 10/01/01 to 4/4/2012 compounded return of 182% using SPY & an aggregate bond fund.  The buy and hold of SPY was 67% by comparison.

The Trend Advantage.

It has been a long time since last update to this Blog.  Simply The Trend Advantage has been on a buy signal so no updates.  I am still here and waiting for the mechanical system to change to a sell.  It has been a great run and don't forget to set your stop at 50% gain of the highest intraday high.

Hope fully it will be awhile before the next sell signal.