There is too much money

Not only is there too much money, it is over valued, it is scared except for the smart money which is on it's way to take over the world leaving the dumb money to wake up some day but it will be too late.  The dumb money is like the mob and the smart money is going to conquer because it has the big computers with the big data, dumb money has consumer technology the big data sells them so the dumb money will be decimated and only the very agile who can leap to new heights will survive.

Stop watching TV and surfing the internet and get to work investing in your self, get educated and then get more education.  Be an expert at more than more thing.  Keep learning and be smart about what you do so that you have a full healthy wealthy life and make the world a better place for all.

OK time to chill out by watching the TV.

:)

Try this out your self

Use a free stock data source like finance yahoo and record from the dates , first trading day in October and April, the opening prices of a bond fund and a small cap fund.

The two I like are IWM and TLT.   Write them down and then use the data for a hypothetical set of trades.  Take a starting point like 1/10/2009 as the entry to buying IWM and the exit first day in April the market is open. Repeat each year and record the results.

Now the April date record TLT price as an entry and the exit first trading day the next October.  Do the math and repeat for each year.

The 2008 into 2009 was not good for this simple investing strategy but starting 1/10/2009 all trades were closed with a gain.

What did you come up with? 

Buy the dips has been working but for how long

Coming up on the "Sell in May and go away".  Last dip instead of selling like so many did I added the position of SPLV.  It is low volatility S&P ETF.  This is a defensive position and will go down less than the S&P500 and pays a dividend.

Also on the dips I scan in Vector Vest a list of ETF's that I follow and look for strength.  I have a position from the top of the list CURE and that is doing well.  The idea is in this type of market is on the dips buy the strength for a short term trade.

May approaching I will have tight stops on CURE.

New High and What to do

I have sold my GDX position for it never gained with in three days so out it goes.

I also trimmed my winners at the new high to book some nice gains.  Next I plan on getting back in on any weakness with the recommendations from Sumgrowth website and the portfolios I have set up.  Next be looking for the seasonal exit out of stocks and into bonds after April 1st.  The last two years April has been down and my guess it will be a strong month in 2013. 

Happy Trading

The case for optimism

The case for optimism - click on the link to read Scott's blog.

Is the news being mismanaged? I think so and Scott's blog shows what is reported in the news can be misleading.  The news is overwhelming negative were Scott shows facts that paint a positive picture of our economy.

Happy Trading

Looking at the chart of GDXJ

I have bought GDXJ because it has gone higher then ten days ago.  It has come down over the last three months and has traded sideways a few weeks making a candidate for a trade.  My stop is 5 percent loss.

The news sounds bad, is it?

If I listened to the news to know when to buy or sell I would lose all my money.  I have no idea what the markets will do tomorrow or next week or next year and no one else does.  How come there are careers made from predicting the markets or come up with reasons why the government is doing it all wrong.  Because there are enough people willing to listen to the predictors.  I listen but do not base my trading on what they predict.

Stick to a trading plan for all investing.  I like the seasonal trade from the book Stock Trader's Almanac and the web site Sumgrowth.com.  I stopped using The Timing Cube because it trades to much causing issues with the wash rule.

Will we get a pull back in the markets?  Don't know but I will sell my positions when my trading plans says too and not before.

Happy Trading

I like this up trend

An update on the Sector Surfer investments and they are working.  The trade frequency is only end of the month if there is a trade.  I have a number of portfolios with different ETFs and that is how I diversify.  Multiple portfolios that put you in one ETF at a time each.  I have five trades and four sold with gains and the loss was small.

I will be watching the seasonal exit out of stocks after and into bonds.  After April first look for the SPX MACD negative signal. 

Happy investing

A new direction for my investing

I will be using two trading systems.  The seasonal trade and sumgrowth.com.  The SPX MACD buy signal was 11/23/2012.  This has been a winner.

Sumgrowth . com  is a work in progress and happy with the results.  A very good set of videos explain how it works, catching the strongest investments in a portfolio.  I have five portfolios now and feel I an diversified enough to commit money to sector surfing.

I have winning trades and if things get bad sector surfer will put me into cash.

Check it out.